| There is a strong movement toward
| |
| | maturity and its ultimate potential. The
|
| Internet-based software applications. Of
| |
| | trade press once again declared this new
|
| this, there is little doubt. I have
| |
| | technology a failure--far before the
|
| written on the SaaS trend in the past,
| |
| | development cycle was even able to
|
| and believe it is real. But sometimes
| |
| | deliver stable, useful products. 802.11
|
| market trends such as the move toward
| |
| | became the dominant wireless networking
|
| SaaS are overstated, both in terms of the
| |
| | standard. Bluetooth has found a small
|
| speed of change, and also how much change
| |
| | niche in short cable replacement,
|
| the trend will ultimately affect a
| |
| | primarily in the market for hands-free
|
| market. We have a word for this
| |
| | devices attached to mobile phones. Newer
|
| overstatement of a trend: "hype". So, is
| |
| | emerging standards such as UWB threaten
|
| traditional software revenue model of
| |
| | to usurp in many of the market niches
|
| licensing dead? Will all software
| |
| | that Bluetooth has been able to
|
| eventually be "given away" to the end
| |
| | establish, and is the new challenger to
|
| user, and supported solely by advertising
| |
| | 802.11 for the wireless networking space.
|
| revenue?
| |
| | PEN AND VOICE COMPUTING (TAKE YOUR PICK):
|
| If you believe many of the pundits in the
| |
| | What was predicted: Many times over the
|
| computer trade press, the answer is a
| |
| | years, tech industry pundits have
|
| resounding "yes".
| |
| | proclaimed that by year xxxx, Pens and or
|
| What do I believe? It's a bunch of hooey.
| |
| | Voice Recognition technologies will have
|
| I've got a few gray hairs, and have been
| |
| | rendered the trusty keyboard and mouse
|
| in the technology business for a while.
| |
| | obsolete. We will be able to engage our
|
| In technology, this type of hype is
| |
| | computing platforms in a more natural
|
| neither unusual nor infrequent. For
| |
| | manner, much like we do in "real world"
|
| background purposes, let's backtrack a
| |
| | interactions. The Apple Newton was to be
|
| bit, to few recent, major "trends", which
| |
| | only the first generation of soon to be
|
| were heralded as the "next big thing" by
| |
| | ubiquitous pen-based computers, which
|
| the mainstream technology trade press and
| |
| | would dominate our everyday computing
|
| associated analysts.
| |
| | world. Later, Bill Gates told us during a
|
| JAVA
| |
| | stage introduction in 2001, that he was
|
| What was predicted: Java was going to
| |
| | "already using a tablet PC as his
|
| take over the world, it was a Microsoft
| |
| | everyday computer." Certainly all the
|
| killer. Sun Microsystems was to ascend to
| |
| | experts, over the years, expected these
|
| the position of King of the technology
| |
| | technologies to mature and become
|
| world.
| |
| | mainstream, long before the year 2006.
|
| What actually happened: There was
| |
| | What actually happened: We're still
|
| tremendous PR hype far in advance of
| |
| | waiting. I'm guessing that Bill G.'s
|
| mature, usable technology and products.
| |
| | clunky Tablet PC is sitting somewhere in
|
| This was followed by headlines detailing
| |
| | the corner of his office--gathering dust.
|
| the dismal failure of Java in the market,
| |
| | I haven't tried to add it up, but I'm
|
| and the beginning of yet another down
| |
| | sure that many billions of dollars have
|
| cycle for Sun. Java technology eventually
| |
| | gone down the drain (along with a bunch
|
| matured and found a nice market space,
| |
| | of high profile startups, and careers),
|
| although not a dominant one, and one that
| |
| | trying to bring these technologies to the
|
| Sun seems to have failed to capitalize on
| |
| | mass market. In the meantime, the
|
| directly. The most recent estimate I've
| |
| | technologies have continued to mature,
|
| seen of Java revenues for Sun is $10M
| |
| | and have found important niches. Pens
|
| annually.
| |
| | have become useful in mobile computing,
|
| BLUETOOTH
| |
| | although keyboards have recently mounted
|
| What was predicted: Bluetooth was going
| |
| | a comeback in that area. Voice
|
| to be the next great wireless standard,
| |
| | recognition continues to mature and has
|
| blowing past the expensive and inferior
| |
| | become very useful in the market for
|
| 802.l1 standard. It would extend from
| |
| | people with disabilities. The maturation
|
| cable replacement all the way to "smart
| |
| | of voice recognition can also be seen
|
| networking".
| |
| | when you call a company using one of the
|
| What actually happened: Unlike Java,
| |
| | newer automated attendants, as entry
|
| which people saw as proprietary to Sun
| |
| | points to their call centers. They are
|
| (with good reason), no one company
| |
| | much smarter and quite a bit less
|
| "owned" Bluetooth. It was backed by a
| |
| | frustrating to use than the earlier
|
| large consortium and standards committee.
| |
| | attempts in the market, which helped coin
|
| Unfortunately, like Java, it was grossly
| |
| | the phrase "voice mail hell".
|
| oversold very early on, both on its
| |
| |
|
