| There is a strong movement toward Internet-based | | | | potential. The trade press once again declared this |
| software applications. Of this, there is little doubt. I | | | | new technology a failure--far before the |
| have written on the SaaS trend in the past, and | | | | development cycle was even able to deliver stable, |
| believe it is real. But sometimes market trends such | | | | useful products. 802.11 became the dominant wireless |
| as the move toward SaaS are overstated, both in | | | | networking standard. Bluetooth has found a small |
| terms of the speed of change, and also how much | | | | niche in short cable replacement, primarily in the |
| change the trend will ultimately affect a market. We | | | | market for hands-free devices attached to mobile |
| have a word for this overstatement of a trend: | | | | phones. Newer emerging standards such as UWB |
| "hype". So, is traditional software revenue model of | | | | threaten to usurp in many of the market niches that |
| licensing dead? Will all software eventually be "given | | | | Bluetooth has been able to establish, and is the new |
| away" to the end user, and supported solely by | | | | challenger to 802.11 for the wireless networking |
| advertising revenue? | | | | space. |
| If you believe many of the pundits in the computer | | | | PEN AND VOICE COMPUTING (TAKE YOUR PICK): |
| trade press, the answer is a resounding "yes". | | | | What was predicted: Many times over the years, |
| What do I believe? It's a bunch of hooey. | | | | tech industry pundits have proclaimed that by year |
| I've got a few gray hairs, and have been in the | | | | xxxx, Pens and or Voice Recognition technologies will |
| technology business for a while. In technology, this | | | | have rendered the trusty keyboard and mouse |
| type of hype is neither unusual nor infrequent. For | | | | obsolete. We will be able to engage our computing |
| background purposes, let's backtrack a bit, to few | | | | platforms in a more natural manner, much like we do |
| recent, major "trends", which were heralded as the | | | | in "real world" interactions. The Apple Newton was to |
| "next big thing" by the mainstream technology trade | | | | be only the first generation of soon to be ubiquitous |
| press and associated analysts. | | | | pen-based computers, which would dominate our |
| JAVA | | | | everyday computing world. Later, Bill Gates told us |
| What was predicted: Java was going to take over | | | | during a stage introduction in 2001, that he was |
| the world, it was a Microsoft killer. Sun Microsystems | | | | "already using a tablet PC as his everyday computer." |
| was to ascend to the position of King of the | | | | Certainly all the experts, over the years, expected |
| technology world. | | | | these technologies to mature and become |
| What actually happened: There was tremendous PR | | | | mainstream, long before the year 2006. |
| hype far in advance of mature, usable technology | | | | What actually happened: We're still waiting. I'm |
| and products. This was followed by headlines detailing | | | | guessing that Bill G.'s clunky Tablet PC is sitting |
| the dismal failure of Java in the market, and the | | | | somewhere in the corner of his office--gathering |
| beginning of yet another down cycle for Sun. Java | | | | dust. I haven't tried to add it up, but I'm sure that |
| technology eventually matured and found a nice | | | | many billions of dollars have gone down the drain |
| market space, although not a dominant one, and one | | | | (along with a bunch of high profile startups, and |
| that Sun seems to have failed to capitalize on | | | | careers), trying to bring these technologies to the |
| directly. The most recent estimate I've seen of Java | | | | mass market. In the meantime, the technologies |
| revenues for Sun is $10M annually. | | | | have continued to mature, and have found important |
| BLUETOOTH | | | | niches. Pens have become useful in mobile computing, |
| What was predicted: Bluetooth was going to be the | | | | although keyboards have recently mounted a |
| next great wireless standard, blowing past the | | | | comeback in that area. Voice recognition continues to |
| expensive and inferior 802.l1 standard. It would | | | | mature and has become very useful in the market |
| extend from cable replacement all the way to "smart | | | | for people with disabilities. The maturation of voice |
| networking". | | | | recognition can also be seen when you call a |
| What actually happened: Unlike Java, which people | | | | company using one of the newer automated |
| saw as proprietary to Sun (with good reason), no | | | | attendants, as entry points to their call centers. They |
| one company "owned" Bluetooth. It was backed by a | | | | are much smarter and quite a bit less frustrating to |
| large consortium and standards committee. | | | | use than the earlier attempts in the market, which |
| Unfortunately, like Java, it was grossly oversold very | | | | helped coin the phrase "voice mail hell". |
| early on, both on its maturity and its ultimate | | | | |