| What seems to be one way can turn out to
| |
| | Each relies on our inability to set the
|
| be quite the opposite. Whatever you
| |
| | fear in a statistical framework.An
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| decide, someone else will disagree, and
| |
| | academic works out that the risk of a
|
| whatever view or posture is taken, there
| |
| | bomb on his plane is small but the risk
|
| is an opposing one which will readily be
| |
| | of two bombs is infinitesimal: so he
|
| taken up by another, insisting just as
| |
| | always carries a bomb with him in his
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| much as you that they are right and
| |
| | case.Television and films perpetuate the
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| following a line of truth and accuracy.
| |
| | idea that any woman worthy of the name is
|
| "Prove it!" say the Scientists.
| |
| | five feet eight inches tall, slim, blonde
|
| "Convince me!" Says the Sceptic. "I
| |
| | with a perfect body and able to achieve
|
| don't see it that way at all", cry the
| |
| | full and multiple orgasms at will,
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| Cynic and the debater.A small child tells
| |
| | anytime, anywhere, with anyone. With
|
| his first lie and gets away with it,
| |
| | regard to the latter at least, surveys
|
| creating his first effective illusion.
| |
| | prove this is not the case with over 75%
|
| By accurately representing something to
| |
| | of women. Yet teenage girls are drawn in
|
| be other than the way it is, he has made
| |
| | to the myth with resultant high stress
|
| the discovery of illusion or lying. A
| |
| | levels.INABILITYInnumeracy can be
|
| whole new world has opened up before him.
| |
| | maddeningly wasteful. Credit cards need
|
| No longer he feels, does he need the old
| |
| | no more than nine numbers in sequence, or
|
| skills to explain, justify and convince
| |
| | even better, six letters (26 to the power
|
| honestly, he can create an illusion or
| |
| | of six is over 300 million). Most have
|
| lie instead. As time goes by he becomes
| |
| | an infuriating 15 or more.We may laugh
|
| more adept and sophisticated in his
| |
| | about damned lies and statistics - but
|
| skills and his parents have to counter
| |
| | somehow the statistics live on when the
|
| his illusions with an increasingly firm
| |
| | laughter has died.We seem unable to
|
| grasp on their own realities and
| |
| | master simple concepts of number, but how
|
| perceptiveness.An adult rebukes and
| |
| | devastating is the impact of this failure
|
| exposes an untruth of another's whilst
| |
| | on our ordinary lives.
|
| firmly maintaining his own illusions in
| |
| | Bluntly, we cannot count. A disability
|
| place... Politicians engage each other
| |
| | as serious as illiteracy, becomes,
|
| and the electorate in "Find me out if you
| |
| | curiously, a matter of shame. Illiteracy
|
| can", whilst perpetuating their own daily
| |
| | we conceal.If we cannot read or spell or
|
| public illusions as the nation slowly
| |
| | quote the novels of Jane Austen and
|
| disintegrates in a truth-less vacuum of
| |
| | Dickens we keep a decent silence. But
|
| public relations and tabloid
| |
| | publicly boast of our innumeracy with
|
| guessing-game of "What's going on?"Lie
| |
| | pride. "I was hopeless at maths ... no
|
| versus lie. Trickery versus trickery.
| |
| | good asking me about fractions .... can
|
| Illusion versus illusion. Simply put,
| |
| | barely count to 10, ha ha".
|
| lying is a deception, an alteration of
| |
| | Like primitive (and not-so-primitive)
|
| time, place, form or event. A statement
| |
| | humans, we seek coincidence and parallels
|
| that something is different from the way
| |
| | where none exist. We seem to need the
|
| it actually is. And we are all just too
| |
| | reassurance of pseudo-sciences, of
|
| susceptible. Susceptible to lies,
| |
| | astrology, "analysis", ley lines and
|
| illusions and misrepresentations.ILLUSION
| |
| | tarot cards, to explain the odd or
|
| AND INNUMERACYCrime is by far the
| |
| | distressing.
|
| greatest victim of innumeracy and
| |
| | We abuse mathematics itself with dotty
|
| misrepresentation. Surveys show that the
| |
| | numerology.But what most concerns is our
|
| public believes crime in Britain to be
| |
| | ignorance of probability theory, our
|
| far worse than it actually is. Media
| |
| | inability to handle proportion and risk.
|
| publicity - especially "terror" clips
| |
| | We lose our capacity for judgment. We
|
| such as are shown on ITV's Crimestoppers
| |
| | cannot filter information gained from
|
| - heightens fear and leads old people and
| |
| | newspapers and broadcasting and set it in
|
| women to alter their lives. Unable to
| |
| | context. Since rarity leads to
|
| grasp the significance of an incident,
| |
| | publicity, rare events come to seem
|
| they assume the worst and retreat into
| |
| | commonplace. We want to be diverted,
|
| fortress self.
| |
| | excited, shocked. Some of us may read
|
| The terrorist knows this well. He has
| |
| | quality newspapers, but we all have
|
| long seen the media as his great ally in
| |
| | tabloid minds.DISTORTIONThis leads to
|
| playing on irrational fears. Two bombs
| |
| | grotesque distortion in our response to
|
| in quick succession constitute a "new
| |
| | events. Forty dead on the roads is not
|
| offensive". By being publicised, set
| |
| | news. Forty dead on a boat is a public
|
| alongside other similar crimes and
| |
| | scandal and the government must
|
| credited with a "conspiracy", this erects
| |
| | act.Smoking-related deaths in America are
|
| an edifice of horror in the public's
| |
| | now the equivalent of three loaded jumbo
|
| mind. Journeys are cancelled, jobs lost,
| |
| | jets crashing every day. The one
|
| chaos induced.In Britain, deaths per head
| |
| | statistic bores us, the other would
|
| of the population from accidents and
| |
| | appall us. (Much the same is true of
|
| violence have steadily fallen in the last
| |
| | drunken driving in Britain).One famous
|
| half of the century. Fear should,
| |
| | aids death is splashed across the papers;
|
| statistically, be falling too. It is
| |
| | stars appear on stage appealing for
|
| not. The greatest risk of violence
| |
| | funds. Alzheimer's disease or kidney
|
| facing British adults is not from
| |
| | failure blight the lives of far more
|
| strangers, the IRA, or acts for God, but
| |
| | people. In my view they are more
|
| from those two familiars, the car and the
| |
| | deserving of charitable support. Sadly,
|
| spouse. The latter, "the loved one", is
| |
| | they are less rare, less exotic, and have
|
| specially lethal. The kitchen is the
| |
| | nothing to do with sex.Only an innumerate
|
| favourite venue for assault, knives and
| |
| | could seriously believe that America's
|
| crockery being readily to hand. But we
| |
| | Strategic Defence Initiative would ever
|
| are not sufficiently aware of these facts
| |
| | do what television cartoons show it
|
| to allow them to affect our lives. They
| |
| | doing.A true numerate would dispense with
|
| are banal. We even pretend not to
| |
| | long-range weather prediction,
|
| believe them.FEARThe Aids researcher
| |
| | lie-detector tests, Treasury Inflation
|
| exploits fear of unsafe sex to get more
| |
| | forecasts and lotteries. The chances of
|
| money for research. The police exploit
| |
| | error are too great, or the odds far too
|
| fear of dark streets to boost manpower
| |
| | long. A numerate would also keep lawyers
|
| and pay. The terrorists know that
| |
| | away from accident inquiries. Lawyers
|
| another bomb creates fear and makes
| |
| | are trained to judge absolutes, guilt and
|
| people fed up with government inability.
| |
| | innocence, rather than the subtle
|
| Each wants our money or our support. A
| |
| | gradations of risk familiar to managers
|
| toothpaste is said to yield "200% fewer
| |
| | struggling with day-to-day problems.The
|
| cavities". A politician "Will not rest
| |
| | "rampant silliness" of pseudo science,
|
| until the majority of our children are
| |
| | the abuse of logic and the lack of clear
|
| above average attainment".
| |
| | thinking on political priorities are
|
| A story in Today declares "The number of
| |
| | abundant.We do not need more facts, but a
|
| women murdered by the men in their lives
| |
| | better ability to grasp the ones we
|
| has jumped from a third to almost a
| |
| | have.Stephen Kaye is a business owner and
|
| half".
| |
| | author from Devon, Uk.
|
